Monday, July 28, 2025

US and Philippines Trade Agreement

Detractors of DJT continue to be baffled by his common-sense approaches to issues big and small, and high and low.  And in the process many are in a tizzy fit, their minds unable to grasp the "hidden" rationale.


Take the latest trade agreement between the US and the small country of the Philippines.  On the surface this is what is known.  It was agreed that US imports to the Philippines will have zero tariff, while Philippine imports to the US will instead be levied 19 percent, rather than the current 20 percent. 


Without thinking of the bigger picture or really, not knowing more, immediately the knives were unsheathed and outright condemnation ran rampant.


Here is my take, not necessarily from insider information but simply from making deductive reasoning culled from past statements and prior trade agreements with the rest of the world.


This is how the mind of Trump works, working on the premise that he had seen how the US had been taken advantage by its partners.  He thus wants to promote fair trade, with no country taking advantage of his country.  In his mind and with great confidence in American exceptionalism, he would rather that there be free and fair trade.  This one can deduce from past nuanced statements he has made about trade.  And if anything, Trump is so predictable when it comes to things he had articulated in the past.  He keeps his promises.


On a very positive note and maybe not known to many, the Philippines has been enjoying the positive end of a trade imbalance with the US, in 2024 alone that figure was $4.9 billion dollars.  Stated differently, the Philippines has been exporting and importing from the US but really exporting a lot more than importing to the tune of $4.9 billion.


Using tariff as effective negotiating tool, the US wants the Philippine to help mitigate this imbalance in the best and most fair way.  The Philippines will allow more US imports or encourage US exporters by easing regulations.  So the Philippines had responded generously by dropping altogether all tariff levies of US imports.  In response, the US has reduced the rate on its end by a mere 1 percent, which admittedly appears quite a pittance.  But that is not the end of the matter.


So what is to happen?


Once this trade imbalance is ameliorated, so that both countries will be importing and exporting almost the same, then further negotiations can be made to rectify the situation, and to make for a more reciprocal and fairer trade agreement.  One can be assured that neither country will interpose serious objections to the new agreement.


No country in the world could easily dismiss the biggest economy of the world, the US, as a destination of its exports. Almost 70 percent of US GDP is devoted to consumer expenditures.  Foreign investors with their abundant capital resources  continue to flock to the US which they consider very fertile and safe grounds.


Lastly, one has to consider other items discussed, like aid and assistance packages that may have been agreed upon as hinted in the interviews, given the very volatile situation in that part of the China Sea.  Add also the detail that tariff is not levied on all but rather on selective items.