Either as a result of acting like a fly on the wall in my countless online travels, or maybe because of having read that book on Internet Psychology, I sense that in group interaction whether in blogs or similar venues, as in most normal interaction, we invariably fall into a tendency to put everything in neat boxes or categorizing everything we read and write based on our own preconceived beliefs/attitudes. And we act and respond accordingly. This is to be expected, I guess, since this is how we humans act and react. But the realities of human thinking are not that cut and dried. Having differing ideas and opinions is more the rule than the exception.
In the past, social scientists advanced the idea of brainstorming sessions to allow the freest collation of ideas on a subject by allowing liberal encouragement to every participant to contribute ideas, unfettered by inhibitions and other pressures that might cause participation bottlenecks. But now they are saying that collected data would seem to suggest that the touted benefits of brainstorming have not really been realized as a result of the dynamics of certain pressures that continue to hinder its effectiveness.
What this suggests to me is that maybe we really have to go through the exacting gauntlet of finding out exactly, or at least reliably, where an idea proponent is coming from beyond the words that he/she uses to flesh out his ideas.
Knowing this, I believe our replies or responses would not only be more responsive but kinder and more civil, and thus engender and court more exchanges from other sources. I know that it is difficult but I think it makes for better and wider participation. if we each make an honest and diligent effort to do so.
Goes to show it is still easier to attract flies with sugar, than with vinegar.
...to make a difference let your life's footprints mark the way for others to follow. However, be prepared to be made a fool for Christ.
RESPICE AD FINEM.
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
The Chinese Yuan and the Philippine Peso
Right now the Chinese yuan is pegged against the US dollar, i.e., in effect the yuan derives its value as compared to the value of the US dollar and not to any other currency. At this time one US dollar is worth about 8.28 yuans.
But everybody is saying that the yuan is undervalued, i.e., it should take less than 8.28 yuans to make one dollar, or it should be 4.97 yuans to a dollar (40% of 8.28 is 3.31 minus to 8.28 is 4.97).
If you are the Chinese manufacturer and/or producer and you are exporting your products, right now you are receiving 8.28 yuans for every dollar of export. If revalued, you will receive only 4.97 yuans for every dollar that you export. Thus, you will receive less for doing the same thing. You will need to add 40% to your production just to keep up. You lose 40% of your gross receipts without doing anything. And the main engine of Chinese progress is its exports
To the outsider, it does seem strange that the Chinese do not want to acknowledge that its currency is worth more as compared to the dollar. But the export angle is the reason.
But the case of the Philippines is different. For one it is not a great exporting country and secondly, it needs a lot of imports just to survive. Thus when the peso value deteriorates against the dollar, then it needs more pesos to import the same goods for the same dollar values. True, its exports get cheaper for those importing them but the Philippine exporters receive lesser amount of dollars. But worse, because the Philippines is a borrowing country, with debts denominated and payable in dollars or other foreign currencies. You will then need more pesos just to service your existing loans.
But everybody is saying that the yuan is undervalued, i.e., it should take less than 8.28 yuans to make one dollar, or it should be 4.97 yuans to a dollar (40% of 8.28 is 3.31 minus to 8.28 is 4.97).
If you are the Chinese manufacturer and/or producer and you are exporting your products, right now you are receiving 8.28 yuans for every dollar of export. If revalued, you will receive only 4.97 yuans for every dollar that you export. Thus, you will receive less for doing the same thing. You will need to add 40% to your production just to keep up. You lose 40% of your gross receipts without doing anything. And the main engine of Chinese progress is its exports
To the outsider, it does seem strange that the Chinese do not want to acknowledge that its currency is worth more as compared to the dollar. But the export angle is the reason.
But the case of the Philippines is different. For one it is not a great exporting country and secondly, it needs a lot of imports just to survive. Thus when the peso value deteriorates against the dollar, then it needs more pesos to import the same goods for the same dollar values. True, its exports get cheaper for those importing them but the Philippine exporters receive lesser amount of dollars. But worse, because the Philippines is a borrowing country, with debts denominated and payable in dollars or other foreign currencies. You will then need more pesos just to service your existing loans.
On US Deficits and China’s Progress
Runaway deficits in the US would not be sustainable over a long period of time. Some things have got to give. And there is no end in sight for the government expenditures that are causing these deficits – the wars, homeland security, even illegal immigration, etc.. So who knows what the future holds.
We can only try to monitor these deficits as we move along and try to find any rationalization. During the Reagan years the deficits peaked at 6% of GDP and fortunately this has not been reached yet. This economy continues to grow robustly. Just for this current year alone, quarterly figures show 3-4% growth of GDP. Thus, while in dollar values the deficits are record highs, they still have not reached that percentage peak during Reagan’s terms.
What can any country do, not just the US, under these very uncertain times? Countries under the EU continue their very anemic growth in their economies, mostly at 1% or even lower. They cannot compare to China’s sustained growth of about 9%.
Thus, while China continues to be frowned upon by the supposedly more civilized countries of the world as having such a repressive government, its sustained growth continues to bring employment, progress and hopefully, enlightenment, to its billion people.
I believe that that is a silver lining.
And re the US economy, figures are hard to dispute. We continue to see good figures for jobs created, and the unemployment rate has not moved much. As a matter of fact, the dailies here show the rate moving down in some counties.
True also, the stock markets have not been encouraging. Quite volatile. And I had thought it would break into the 11,000 mark. But again we cannot close our eyes to these uncertain times. The price of oil and consequently, gasoline prices have been big dampers to the economy. The players in the markets are easily scared and unnerved.
Many may find causes to fault the US economy at this time, but in so doing one needs only to see its reflection in the mirror to realize that whatever the US is going through ripples through the entire world.
We can only try to monitor these deficits as we move along and try to find any rationalization. During the Reagan years the deficits peaked at 6% of GDP and fortunately this has not been reached yet. This economy continues to grow robustly. Just for this current year alone, quarterly figures show 3-4% growth of GDP. Thus, while in dollar values the deficits are record highs, they still have not reached that percentage peak during Reagan’s terms.
What can any country do, not just the US, under these very uncertain times? Countries under the EU continue their very anemic growth in their economies, mostly at 1% or even lower. They cannot compare to China’s sustained growth of about 9%.
Thus, while China continues to be frowned upon by the supposedly more civilized countries of the world as having such a repressive government, its sustained growth continues to bring employment, progress and hopefully, enlightenment, to its billion people.
I believe that that is a silver lining.
And re the US economy, figures are hard to dispute. We continue to see good figures for jobs created, and the unemployment rate has not moved much. As a matter of fact, the dailies here show the rate moving down in some counties.
True also, the stock markets have not been encouraging. Quite volatile. And I had thought it would break into the 11,000 mark. But again we cannot close our eyes to these uncertain times. The price of oil and consequently, gasoline prices have been big dampers to the economy. The players in the markets are easily scared and unnerved.
Many may find causes to fault the US economy at this time, but in so doing one needs only to see its reflection in the mirror to realize that whatever the US is going through ripples through the entire world.
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Conchita and Eve
Am testing a new service called Flickr. It allows graphics to be incorporated in one's blogs. HTML illiterates can still try it, simply by knowing how to "cut and paste".
Since this blog is definitely a work in progress, more features will be added as soon as one catches up with the learning process.
Since this blog is definitely a work in progress, more features will be added as soon as one catches up with the learning process.
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